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T20 World Cup semifinals qualification scenarios: 6 teams remain in race

India and South Africa are favourites in Group 2, with Pakistan having an outside chance if either of them slips up. England and New Zealand are favourites in Group 1, with Australia having an outside chance.

T20 World Cup semifinals qualification scenarios: 6 teams remain in race

The T20 World Cup trophy (ICC)


The Bridge Desk

Updated: 3 Nov 2022 12:25 PM GMT

With the last few group matches left to play in the T20 World Cup, six teams still stand a chance of making it to the semifinals - India, New Zealand, England, South Africa, Australia and Pakistan.

Netherlands and Afghanistan have been officially eliminated, while Ireland and Zimbabwe are waiting on other matches to be officially eliminated. Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are still in with mathematical chances, but they are on the brink of elimination too.

Pakistan and Australia need other results to go their way but can be said to still have a decent chance. India, South Africa, New Zealand and England are currently the four frontrunners.

Group 1 sees a three-way tie between Australia, New Zealand and England in the lead in the race for the top two spots, with Sri Lanka lurking just behind. In Group 2, India and South Africa are the favourites to hold on to their top two spots, but Pakistan could yet upset the cart.

Here's what needs to happen for the teams (provided rain does not play a starring role):

Group 1

New Zealand - 4 matches, 5 points | NRR +2.233

Match Remaining: vs Ireland

The defeat to England did not displace New Zealand from the top of the table due to their much superior net run rate. Now it will come down to the final round of matches for NZ, ENG and AUS to determine which teams shall finish in the top two. Provided all of them win their matches, it will come down to NRR. NZ are favourites to remain on top of the group as they have the highest NRR.

England - 4 matches, 5 points | NRR +0.547

Match Remaining: vs Sri Lanka

England overturned the complexion of the group by beating New Zealand on Tuesday and are now better placed than Australia to finish at 2nd.

Australia - 4 matches, 5 points | NRR -0.304

Match Remaining: vs Afghanistan

The home team would be disappointed with England's win against New Zealand as that brings the equation in this group down to who has the better net run rate. Currently, Australia are at a disadvantage in this regard and they will need to beat Afghanistan by a much bigger margin than England beat Sri Lanka to make it through.

Sri Lanka - 4 matches, 4 points | NRR -0.457

Match Remaining: vs England

Sri Lanka remain alive in the tournament by beating Afghanistan on Tuesday. They now need to beat England and hope that either Afghanistan beat Australia, or New Zealand lose to Ireland.

READ | How rain can affect T20 World Cup points table

Group 2

India - 4 matches, 6 points | NRR +0.730

Match Remaining: vs Zimbabwe

India almost ensured their qualification for the semis by beating Bangladesh on Wednesday.

In case India lose to Zimbabwe:

a) They could still go through on the basis of points as 2nd if Bangladesh beat Pakistan.

b) They could be involved in a race for the second spot on the basis of NRR. Either Pakistan (if they beat Bangladesh) or Bangladesh (if they beat Pakistan) could finish tied with India on points. Pakistan's NRR, being much higher than Bangladesh's, poses a more realistic danger to India in case that scenario plays out.

South Africa - 4 matches, 5 points | NRR +1.441

Match Remaining: vs Netherlands

A win in their final match - against Netherlands - will be adequate to get South Africa through to the semis. If they lose their final group match, the winner of the Pakistan vs Bangladesh match will finish above them.

a) In case Pakistan win, India will be 2nd.

b) In case Bangladesh win, India will be 1st.

Pakistan - 4 matches, 4 points | NRR +1.117

Match Remaining: vs Bangladesh

Pakistan need to win their matches against Bangladesh and need to hope that

a) Netherlands can do them a favour and beat South Africa OR

b) Zimbabwe can do them a favour and beat India.

Bangladesh - 4 matches, 4 points | NRR -1.276

Match Remaining: vs Pakistan

In case Bangladesh beat Pakistan, they additionally need

a) South Africa to lose their match against Netherlands OR

b) India to lose to Zimbabwe by an improbably large margin.

Bangladesh's hopes of semis are now highly unrealistic because of their inferior NRR.

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