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Cricket

How rain can affect T20 World Cup points table

According to weather forecasts, three more matches are in danger of being decided by rain in the T20 World Cup. England and Pakistan have the most to lose.

How rain can affect T20 World Cup points table
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The two matches at The Gabba on Tuesday are in risk of being washed out (CA)

By

The Bridge Desk

Updated: 31 Oct 2022 1:13 PM GMT

Five matches at the 2022 T20 World Cup have been decided by rain so far. Based on weather forecasts by the Australian government's Bureau of Meteorology, there are three more matches which are in danger of being decided in this fashion this week.

England in Group 1 and Pakistan in Group 2 are the teams who have the most to lose if weather decides to have a say. New Zealand and India are the two teams who have the least to lose if these matches get washed out.

Here's how three-rain affected matches could swing the T20 World Cup points table in the final week of group matches:

Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka, Group 1 - The Gabba, Brisbane (Nov 01, Tue)

Chance of Rainfall: High

In case a match is possible between Afghanistan and Sri Lanka, the loser will be knocked out while the winner can make it to the semis if they can pull off an upset either over England or Australia. In case this match is washed out, both teams survive for now but would then need to depend on net run rate to finish in the top two.

This would be highly unlikely as they would then need to beat England/Australia by huge margins, both of whom have superior NRRs than them. Both Afghanistan and Sri Lanka, or effectively the winner of the match, have realistic semis hopes to lose if there is no result here.

England vs New Zealand, Group 1 - The Gabba, Brisbane (Nov 01, Tue)

Chance of Rainfall: Medium

England have the most to lose in Group 1 if rain has a significant say in the remaining matches. Their best bet of putting the Trans-Tasman neighbours under pressure is if they can beat New Zealand. In case there is no result here, England's fortunes will go out of their own hands. To make it to the semis, they will then need to depend on an upset in other matches - either Australia losing to Afghanistan, or New Zealand losing to Ireland by a huge margin.

According to Australia's weather department, there is a "very high (near 100%) chance of rain and thunderstorm most likely in the morning and afternoon" in Brisbane on Tuesday - affecting both these above matches.

READ | T20 World Cup points table, semifinals qualification scenarios

India vs Bangladesh, Group 2 - Adelaide Oval, Adelaide (Nov 02, Wed)

Chance of Rainfall: Medium

On the face of it, a 'no result' here would not change things much in Group 2 as India and Bangladesh will hold on to their 2nd and 3rd spots. The requirement for other teams to make it to the semis remain roughly the same. However, it does make the situation go even more out of Pakistan's hands.

In case this match happens and India end up on the losing side, there is a chance that all three of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh end up tied on 6 points. Pakistan, having a good NRR, can hope to inch into the semis through this route for now. Rain in Adelaide on Wednesday can dash that hope as India can then finish with 7 points with a win in the last match vs Zimbabwe.

According to Australia's weather department, there is a "medium (60%) chance of showers, most likely in the evening" in Adelaide on Wednesday, indicating that this match could be a rain-curtailed one.

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