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T20 World Cup: Is India's last group match vs Zimbabwe a must-win one?
India are guaranteed a top-two finish in their group if they beat Zimbabwe or if the match is a washout. If India lose, there are 9 possibilities which could play out. 2 of those 9 possibilities pose a danger to India:
India are currently at the top of Group 2 but a defeat to Zimbabwe opens up several possibilities. (BCCI)
The last day of group matches at the T20 World Cup promises to be a frantic day of action in Group 2, with four teams - India, South Africa, Pakistan and Bangladesh - still in with a chance to go through to the semifinals.
The three matches in chronological order on Sunday will be South Africa vs Netherlands, Pakistan vs Bangladesh and India vs Zimbabwe. India and South Africa are currently the frontrunners to finish at 1st and 2nd in the group, but there are several possibilities that open up in case one of them slips up, or rain decides the match.
India, playing the last group match of the World Cup, will have their equation cut out by the time they take the field against Zimbabwe. Whether it would be a must-win game would be decided by the results of the two other matches.
If India win their match against Zimbabwe or if the India vs Zimbabwe match is a washout, they are assured a top two finish in Group 2. However, if they do not win, these are the possibilities can play out:
a) If South Africa beat Netherlands, AND
i) Pakistan beat Bangladesh - India NEED to beat Zimbabwe. India would be eliminated if they lose to Zimbabwe. If India vs Zimbabwe is a washout, then India would finish 2nd in the group behind South Africa. (DANGER)
India's next match: Eliminated
ii) Bangladesh beat Pakistan - Even a loss or a washout for India should be good enough to finish at 2nd behind South Africa. Unless Bangladesh can beat Pakistan by a margin of around 50 runs and India lose to Zimbabwe by a similar margin.
India's next match: Semi vs New Zealand
iii) Pakistan vs Bangladesh is a washout - India do not need any points from the Zimbabwe match. Even a loss would see them finish at 2nd.
India's next match: Semi vs New Zealand
b) If South Africa loses to Netherlands AND
i) Pakistan beat Bangladesh - India are guaranteed a second place finish even if they lose. If India's game against Zimbabwe is a washout, India finish as 1st in the group and Pakistan finish at 2nd.
India's next match: Semi vs New Zealand
ii) Bangladesh beat Pakistan - India are guaranteed a top two finish in this scenario too, even if they lose. They are likely to finish 1st and Bangladesh will finish at 2nd.
India's next match: Semi vs England
iii) Pakistan vs Bangladesh is a washout - India are guaranteed a 1st-place finish, even if they lose to Zimbabwe. South Africa or Pakistan would finish at 2nd, depending on the margin of South Africa's defeat to Netherlands.
India's next match: Semi vs England
c) If South Africa vs Netherlands is a washout AND
i) Pakistan beat Bangladesh - India NEED to beat Zimbabwe. India will be eliminated if the lose to Zimbabwe, with South Africa and Pakistan finishing as the top two in the group. If India's game vs Zimbabwe is a washout, then India will finish at 1st, with one of South Africa/Pakistan finishing at 2nd. (DANGER)
India's next match: Eliminated
ii) Bangladesh beat Pakistan - If India lose to Zimbabwe, they would have to depend on Bangladesh to not beat Pakistan by a big margin to finish at 2nd. If India's game is a washout, India finish at 2nd behind South Africa.
India's next match: Semi vs New Zealand
iii) Pakistan vs Bangladesh is a washout - India do not need any points from the Zimbabwe match. Even a loss would see them finish at 2nd.
India's next match: Semi vs New Zealand
