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Hockey's Olympics qualification - what happens next for India
Olympic Qualification Process
The Olympic Qualification process for Hockey is the same for both men and women and is rather simple. There will be a total of 12 teams per gender competing in Tokyo. Six of these teams were expected to qualify directly – the five continental champions (Asia, Pan-America, Africa, Oceania and Europe) and the hosts Japan. However, with Japan having won the Asian Games Gold in both the men’s and women’s events, only five teams will now qualify directly. The continental championships for all the continents other than Asia are yet to be played. The remaining seven qualifying teams will come from the Olympic Qualifiers, which are a series of seven independent club-football-style head-to-head match-ups. Every team will face just one opponent in two matches, with the team having the higher aggregate score over the two matches advancing to Tokyo. Unlike club football though, the games will not be played on a home-and-away basis but will both be played at the home of higher ranked team based on World Rankings. Thus, 14 teams need to qualify for the Olympic Qualifiers. These consist of the top four teams of the FIH Pro League, the top two teams of each of the three FIH Hockey Series Finals and the four highest-ranked teams based on World Rankings not otherwise qualified. However, in practice, six to eight teams are expected to qualify based on World Rankings. This is because the Continental Champions, who qualify directly for the Olympics and thus will not play the Olympic Qualifiers, are anyway likely to come from teams qualified for the Olympic Qualifiers, and therefore all such extraneous spots will be reallocated based on the World Rankings. Further, the 14 teams competing in the Olympic Qualifiers will essentially be divided into four seeding levels based on World Ranking. The highest-ranked three teams among the qualifiers will form the highest seeding group and will be drawn by lots to play against the lowest ranked three teams. Similarly, the teams ranked fourth to seventh among the qualifiers will be drawn to play against the teams ranked 8th - 11th. Hence, World Rankings will be critical in determining who gets a relatively weaker opponent and thus an easier path to Tokyo.Men’s Rankings
The current Men’s World Rankings are as follows.
World Rank | Country | Continent | Ranking Points | Pro League Placing | Hockey Series Placing | Olympic Qualifier Status | Continental Champion Status | Likely Olympic Qualifier Seeding |
1 | AUSTRALIA | Oceania | 2350 | 1 | Qualified | Highly Likely | Unlikely to compete | |
2 | BELGIUM | Europe | 2298 | 2 | Qualified | Possible | 1-2, if competes | |
3 | NETHERLANDS | Europe | 2205 | 3 | Qualified | Possible | 1-2, if competes | |
4 | ARGENTINA | America | 1988 | 5 | Assured Qualification | Highly Likely | Unlikely to compete | |
5 | INDIA | Asia | 1823 | 1 | Qualified | No | 2-4 | |
6 | ENGLAND | Europe | 1779 | 4 | Qualified | Possible | 2-4, if competes | |
7 | GERMANY | Europe | 1770 | 6 | Assured Qualification | Possible | 2-4, if competes | |
8 | NEW ZEALAND | Oceania | 1459 | 8 | Assured Qualification | Unlikely | 5-6 | |
9 | SPAIN | Europe | 1360 | 7 | Assured Qualification | Unlikely | 5-7 | |
10 | CANADA | America | 1325 | 1 | Qualified | Unlikely | 7-11 | |
11 | IRELAND | Europe | 1193 | 2 | Qualified | Unlikely | 7-11 | |
12 | MALAYSIA | Asia | 1173 | 2 | Qualified | No | 7-11 | |
13 | FRANCE | Europe | 1143 | 1 | Qualified | No | 8-11 | |
14 | SOUTH AFRICA | Africa | 1043 | 2 | Qualified | Likely | 8-11, if competes | |
15 | SOUTH KOREA | Asia | 910 | 3 | Assured Qualification | No | 11-13 | |
16 | JAPAN | Asia | 860 | 3 | - | CHAMPIONS | - | |
17 | PAKISTAN | Asia | 855 | Highly Likely | No | 12-14 | ||
18 | CHINA | Asia | 828 | 6 | OUT | No | - | |
19 | AUSTRIA | Europe | 778 | 4 | Likely | No | 13-14, if competes | |
20 | EGYPT | Africa | 698 | 5 | Likely | Unlikely | 13-14, if competes | |
21 | SCOTLAND | Europe | 655 | 4 | Does not compete separately in Olympics | |||
22 | POLAND | Europe | 606 | 6 | Highly Unlikely | No | ||
23 | RUSSIA | Europe | 598 | 5 | Unlikely | No | 13-14, if competes | |
24 | UNITED STATES | America | 559 | 4 | Unlikely | Unlikely | 11-12, if competes | |
25 | WALES | Europe | 555 | 5 | Does not compete separately in Olympics | |||
26 | ITALY | Europe | 483 | 3 | Unlikely | No | 13-14, if competes | |
27 | UKRAINE | Europe | 410 | 7 | Highly Unlikely | No | ||
28 | CHILE | America | 384 | 6 | Highly Unlikely | Highly Unlikely |
Men’s Scenarios
The Indian men are currently ranked 5. First of all, the teams ranked eight and below are too far behind to catch up with India. Hence, India is assured of a spot in the top seven of the world and therefore, WILL play their Olympic Qualifier at home. The question then is; can India reach the top seeding group by being among the top 3 teams in the Olympic Qualifier? Now, the top 3 teams in the world – Australia, Belgium and Netherlands – cannot drop below India even if they have a disaster at their respective continental tournaments. Argentina, World Rank 4, will drop below India if it fails to reach the final of the Pan American Games, though with the competition on offer that would be a major upset. Indian men's team after winning the FIH Series Finals However, India, England (or Great Britain) and Germany are locked in an extremely tight race for World Rank five. In general, England and Germany each need to finish in the top three of the upcoming eight-nation European Championships in August in order to overtake India, though there are some extreme permutations whereby 3rd place might not be enough or even fourth place might be enough to overtake India. Thus, India is likely to end up with a World Ranking between five and seven. Now, Australia will be strong favourites to win the Oceania Cup (which, this year, will have only two teams – Australia and New Zealand) and Argentina will be strong favourites to win the Pan American Games (with the most robust competition likely to come from Canada and USA). Hence, both these teams are expected to qualify for Tokyo directly and not compete in the Olympic Qualifiers. This would leave five teams in contention for being the top three seeds at the Olympic Qualifier – Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, England and India. Belgium and Netherlands, if they don’t win the European Championships and qualify directly, are assured of their slot in the top 3 seeds. That would leave India, England and Germany to fight for the remaining 1 or 2 slots. So, to see India among the top three seeds, Indian fans should be supporting Australia at the Oceania Cup, Argentina at the Pan American Games, and Belgium and Netherlands at the European Championships while hoping that both England and Germany don’t end up in the top 3 at the Euros. But who will India face if they end up as one of the top three seeds? This is where the situation isn’t that pleasant. Because they pulled out of the Pro League and thus did not even compete in the Hockey Series, Pakistan now has a very low World Ranking. As per various calculations, Pakistan are virtually assured to be among the 12th-14th seeded teams in the Olympic Qualifier (provided they are allowed to compete in the first place) making India vs Pakistan with a Tokyo spot on the line a distinct possibility. This also means that, with a couple of wild matches, Pakistan might even knock a top team like Belgium, Netherlands or Germany out of the Olympics altogether. The other two possible opponents for India if they are seeded in the top three are likely to be Austria and Egypt, with Russia and Italy needing some major upsets to make the cut. Further, if USA is able to reach the final of the Pan American Games ahead of Canada or Argentina, they will gain a ton of points and rise through the rankings to push South Korea into the bottom three seeds!! But if USA fails to do so, then they will be eliminated from the Olympic Qualifiers outright. On the other hand, if India ends up in the fourth-seventh seeding group, their opponents are likely to be drawn from Malaysia, Ireland, France and South Korea (or possibly USA and Canada if USA reaches the Pan American Games Final ahead of Canada). The wild card here is South Africa, who would be expected to win the African Championships. However, in the past, South Africa has given up their spot earned through the continental championship route and opted to compete in the World Qualifier, in which case they would take a spot in the 8th-11th seeding group and push South Korea to the bottom 12th-14th seeding group! The Olympic spot thus vacated by South Africa would be awarded to likely African runner-up Egypt IF they finish in the top 20 of the World Rankings, or to the highest ranked loser of the Olympic Qualifiers. So, in conclusion, while India have a pretty good chance of being one of the top 3 seeds in the Olympic Qualifier, it might not necessarily result in a weak opponent with Pakistan and South Korea both lurking towards the bottom of the rankings.Women’s Rankings
The current Women’s World Rankings are as follows.
World Rank | Country | Continent | Ranking Points | Pro League Placing | Hockey Series Placing | Olympic Qualifer Status | Continental Champion Status | Likely Olympic Qualifer Seeding |
1 | NETHERLANDS | Europe | 2578 | 1 | Qualified | Possible | 1, if competes | |
2 | AUSTRALIA | Oceania | 2070 | 2 | Qualified | Highly Likely | Unlikely to compete | |
3 | ARGENTINA | America | 1938 | 4 | Qualified | Highly Likely | Unlikely to compete | |
4 | ENGLAND | Europe | 1861 | 8 | Assured Qualification | Possible | 1-5, if competes | |
5 | GERMANY | Europe | 1793 | 3 | Qualified | Possible | 1-5, if competes | |
6 | NEW ZEALAND | Oceania | 1683 | 6 | Assured Qualification | Unlikely | 2-4 | |
7 | SPAIN | Europe | 1613 | 1 | Qualified | Possible | 2-7, if competes | |
8 | IRELAND | Europe | 1480 | 2 | Qualified | Possible | 3-9, if competes | |
9 | BELGIUM | Europe | 1445 | 5 | Assured Qualification | Possible | 5-10, if competes | |
10 | INDIA | Asia | 1443 | 1 | Qualified | No | 5-8 | |
11 | CHINA | Asia | 1421 | 7 | Assured Qualification | No | 6-9 | |
12 | SOUTH KOREA | Asia | 1380 | 1 | Qualified | No | 7-10 | |
13 | UNITED STATES | America | 1223 | 9 | Assured Qualification | Unlikely | 5-11 | |
14 | JAPAN | Asia | 1185 | 2 | - | CHAMPIONS | - | |
15 | CHILE | America | 1085 | 3 | Likely | Unlikely | 11-14, if competes | |
16 | SOUTH AFRICA | Africa | 983 | 4 | Likely | Likely | 11-13, if competes | |
17 | ITALY | Europe | 929 | 3 | Likely | No | 11-14, if competes | |
18 | CANADA | America | 823 | 2 | Qualified | Highly Unlikely | 11-14 | |
19 | SCOTLAND | Europe | 713 | 5 | Does not compete separately in Olympics | |||
20 | MALAYSIA | Asia | 708 | 3 | Unlikely | No | 14, if competes | |
21 | CZECH REPUBLIC | Europe | 703 | 4 | OUT | No | ||
22 | BELARUS | Europe | 625 | 5 | Possible | Highly Unlikely | 13-14, if competes | |
23 | RUSSIA | Europe | 596 | 4 | Possible | Highly Unlikely | 13-14, if competes | |
24 | POLAND | Europe | 580 | 5 | OUT | No | ||
25 | URUGUAY | America | 483 | 6 | Highly Unlikely | Highly Unlikely | ||
26 | WALES | Europe | 475 | 6 | Does not compete separately in Olympics | |||
27 | UKRAINE | Europe | 418 | 7 | OUT | No | ||
28 | THAILAND | Asia | 335 | 7 | OUT | No |