Study says India will win 12 medals in Tokyo 2020 Olympics

With exactly six months to go until the Tokyo 2020 Olympics, the Indian team is expected to return with its best haul of 12 medals, according to a prediction issued by Gracenote, a Nielsen company that analyzes team and individual results from the past. Taking into account performances in the past Olympics, World Championships and World Cup, Gracenote, which publishes an estimate before every Games, sees India finishing on 23rd position with 12 medals, including 2 gold, 4 silver and 6 bronze.

But while the prediction will send the sporting fraternity in India into a frenzy, analyzing whether it is a realistic dream is of great importance. The study takes into account India's showings in the past World Championships and the World Cups for the end result, which is not necessarily a projection of how many medals will be won in Tokyo.

Earlier as well, we have seen Indian athletes fare well in World Cups, with shooters, boxers and wrestlers especially consistently returning with medals from the respective world events. While these sports have earned medals for India in the Olympics of late, the numbers, when compared to the returns in World events, have been dismal.

Two other examples can be stated here. In the London 2012 Olympics, Deepika Kumari entered the multi-national event as the number one archer in the world after clinching gold in the World Championships just a few months before the Olympics. However, at the grandest stage, she failed to keep a grip on the nerves, with the windy conditions on the day of her event affecting her chances as well.

In the 2016 Rio Olympics, shooter Jitu Rai, who had been termed as the 'Golden Man in India' due to his consistent gold medal winning efforts in almost every event that he participated in, found it tough to keep up with the pressure, returning empty handed despite being touted as a sure-shot medal winner.

Hence, past performances are anything but a reliable mirror of how the future is expected to pan out. While the number of 12 medals that has been predicted is encouraging for the Olympic-bound athletes, a sense of realism should prevail as well as fighting it out in Tokyo will be a whole different ball-game altogether.