Hockey's Olympics qualification - what happens next for India

Both of India’s hockey teams – the men and the women – recently won their respective FIH Hockey Series Finals and secured themselves a place in the upcoming Olympic Qualifiers in Oct-Nov, 2019. However, what do they have to do exactly now to book that flight to Tokyo? To find out, read on.

Olympic Qualification Process

The Olympic Qualification process for Hockey is the same for both men and women and is rather simple. There will be a total of 12 teams per gender competing in Tokyo. Six of these teams were expected to qualify directly – the five continental champions (Asia, Pan-America, Africa, Oceania and Europe) and the hosts Japan. However, with Japan having won the Asian Games Gold in both the men’s and women’s events, only five teams will now qualify directly. The continental championships for all the continents other than Asia are yet to be played. The remaining seven qualifying teams will come from the Olympic Qualifiers, which are a series of seven independent club-football-style head-to-head match-ups. Every team will face just one opponent in two matches, with the team having the higher aggregate score over the two matches advancing to Tokyo. Unlike club football though, the games will not be played on a home-and-away basis but will both be played at the home of higher ranked team based on World Rankings. Thus, 14 teams need to qualify for the Olympic Qualifiers. These consist of the top four teams of the FIH Pro League, the top two teams of each of the three FIH Hockey Series Finals and the four highest-ranked teams based on World Rankings not otherwise qualified. However, in practice, six to eight teams are expected to qualify based on World Rankings. This is because the Continental Champions, who qualify directly for the Olympics and thus will not play the Olympic Qualifiers, are anyway likely to come from teams qualified for the Olympic Qualifiers, and therefore all such extraneous spots will be reallocated based on the World Rankings. Further, the 14 teams competing in the Olympic Qualifiers will essentially be divided into four seeding levels based on World Ranking. The highest-ranked three teams among the qualifiers will form the highest seeding group and will be drawn by lots to play against the lowest ranked three teams. Similarly, the teams ranked fourth to seventh among the qualifiers will be drawn to play against the teams ranked 8th - 11th. Hence, World Rankings will be critical in determining who gets a relatively weaker opponent and thus an easier path to Tokyo.

Men’s Rankings

The current Men’s World Rankings are as follows.

World Rank	Country	Continent	Ranking Points	Pro League Placing	Hockey Series Placing	Olympic Qualifier Status	Continental Champion Status	Likely Olympic Qualifier Seeding
1	AUSTRALIA	Oceania	2350	1		Qualified	Highly Likely	Unlikely to compete
2	BELGIUM	Europe	2298	2		Qualified	Possible	1-2, if competes
3	NETHERLANDS	Europe	2205	3		Qualified	Possible	1-2, if competes
4	ARGENTINA	America	1988	5		Assured Qualification	Highly Likely	Unlikely to compete
5	INDIA	Asia	1823		1	Qualified	No	2-4
6	ENGLAND	Europe	1779	4		Qualified	Possible	2-4, if competes
7	GERMANY	Europe	1770	6		Assured Qualification	Possible	2-4, if competes
8	NEW ZEALAND	Oceania	1459	8		Assured Qualification	Unlikely	5-6
9	SPAIN	Europe	1360	7		Assured Qualification	Unlikely	5-7
10	CANADA	America	1325		1	Qualified	Unlikely	7-11
11	IRELAND	Europe	1193		2	Qualified	Unlikely	7-11
12	MALAYSIA	Asia	1173		2	Qualified	No	7-11
13	FRANCE	Europe	1143		1	Qualified	No	8-11
14	SOUTH AFRICA	Africa	1043		2	Qualified	Likely	8-11, if competes
15	SOUTH KOREA	Asia	910		3	Assured Qualification	No	11-13
16	JAPAN	Asia	860		3	-	CHAMPIONS	-
17	PAKISTAN	Asia	855			Highly Likely	No	12-14
18	CHINA	Asia	828		6	OUT	No	-
19	AUSTRIA	Europe	778		4	Likely	No	13-14, if competes
20	EGYPT	Africa	698		5	Likely	Unlikely	13-14, if competes
21	SCOTLAND	Europe	655		4	Does not compete separately in Olympics
22	POLAND	Europe	606		6	Highly Unlikely	No
23	RUSSIA	Europe	598		5	Unlikely	No	13-14, if competes
24	UNITED STATES	America	559		4	Unlikely	Unlikely	11-12, if competes
25	WALES	Europe	555		5	Does not compete separately in Olympics
26	ITALY	Europe	483		3	Unlikely	No	13-14, if competes
27	UKRAINE	Europe	410		7	Highly Unlikely	No
28	CHILE	America	384		6	Highly Unlikely	Highly Unlikely

It is, however, important to note that the above rankings do not include the results of the 2018 Asian Games. This is because, as per FIH policy, continental events are included in the World Rankings only when ALL the continental championships of a given cycle are completed. As Asian Games is the only continental championship of the 2018-19 cycle to be completed, it is not yet included. Further, the continental championships are the only tournaments that will have an impact on the above rankings before they are locked in for the Olympic Qualifiers. This means that India will lose 45 points in the next iteration of the rankings (India won Gold in 2014 Asian Games but only Bronze in 2018 Asian Games), the iteration that will be used to determine the seeding and teams in the Olympic qualifiers. Pakistan will also lose points while Malaysia and Japan will gain, with China tumbling down the rankings as they did not even send a team to the 2018 Asian Games.

Men’s Scenarios

The Indian men are currently ranked 5. First of all, the teams ranked eight and below are too far behind to catch up with India. Hence, India is assured of a spot in the top seven of the world and therefore, WILL play their Olympic Qualifier at home. The question then is; can India reach the top seeding group by being among the top 3 teams in the Olympic Qualifier? Now, the top 3 teams in the world – Australia, Belgium and Netherlands – cannot drop below India even if they have a disaster at their respective continental tournaments. Argentina, World Rank 4, will drop below India if it fails to reach the final of the Pan American Games, though with the competition on offer that would be a major upset. Indian men's team after winning the FIH Series Finals However, India, England (or Great Britain) and Germany are locked in an extremely tight race for World Rank five. In general, England and Germany each need to finish in the top three of the upcoming eight-nation European Championships in August in order to overtake India, though there are some extreme permutations whereby 3rd place might not be enough or even fourth place might be enough to overtake India. Thus, India is likely to end up with a World Ranking between five and seven. Now, Australia will be strong favourites to win the Oceania Cup (which, this year, will have only two teams – Australia and New Zealand) and Argentina will be strong favourites to win the Pan American Games (with the most robust competition likely to come from Canada and USA). Hence, both these teams are expected to qualify for Tokyo directly and not compete in the Olympic Qualifiers. This would leave five teams in contention for being the top three seeds at the Olympic Qualifier – Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, England and India. Belgium and Netherlands, if they don’t win the European Championships and qualify directly, are assured of their slot in the top 3 seeds. That would leave India, England and Germany to fight for the remaining 1 or 2 slots. So, to see India among the top three seeds, Indian fans should be supporting Australia at the Oceania Cup, Argentina at the Pan American Games, and Belgium and Netherlands at the European Championships while hoping that both England and Germany don’t end up in the top 3 at the Euros. But who will India face if they end up as one of the top three seeds? This is where the situation isn’t that pleasant. Because they pulled out of the Pro League and thus did not even compete in the Hockey Series, Pakistan now has a very low World Ranking. As per various calculations, Pakistan are virtually assured to be among the 12th-14th seeded teams in the Olympic Qualifier (provided they are allowed to compete in the first place) making India vs Pakistan with a Tokyo spot on the line a distinct possibility. This also means that, with a couple of wild matches, Pakistan might even knock a top team like Belgium, Netherlands or Germany out of the Olympics altogether. The other two possible opponents for India if they are seeded in the top three are likely to be Austria and Egypt, with Russia and Italy needing some major upsets to make the cut. Further, if USA is able to reach the final of the Pan American Games ahead of Canada or Argentina, they will gain a ton of points and rise through the rankings to push South Korea into the bottom three seeds!! But if USA fails to do so, then they will be eliminated from the Olympic Qualifiers outright. On the other hand, if India ends up in the fourth-seventh seeding group, their opponents are likely to be drawn from Malaysia, Ireland, France and South Korea (or possibly USA and Canada if USA reaches the Pan American Games Final ahead of Canada). The wild card here is South Africa, who would be expected to win the African Championships. However, in the past, South Africa has given up their spot earned through the continental championship route and opted to compete in the World Qualifier, in which case they would take a spot in the 8th-11th seeding group and push South Korea to the bottom 12th-14th seeding group! The Olympic spot thus vacated by South Africa would be awarded to likely African runner-up Egypt IF they finish in the top 20 of the World Rankings, or to the highest ranked loser of the Olympic Qualifiers. So, in conclusion, while India have a pretty good chance of being one of the top 3 seeds in the Olympic Qualifier, it might not necessarily result in a weak opponent with Pakistan and South Korea both lurking towards the bottom of the rankings.

Women’s Rankings

The current Women’s World Rankings are as follows.

World Rank	Country	Continent	Ranking Points	Pro League Placing	Hockey Series Placing	Olympic Qualifer Status	Continental Champion Status	Likely Olympic Qualifer Seeding
1	NETHERLANDS	Europe	2578	1		Qualified	Possible	1, if competes
2	AUSTRALIA	Oceania	2070	2		Qualified	Highly Likely	Unlikely to compete
3	ARGENTINA	America	1938	4		Qualified	Highly Likely	Unlikely to compete
4	ENGLAND	Europe	1861	8		Assured Qualification	Possible	1-5, if competes
5	GERMANY	Europe	1793	3		Qualified	Possible	1-5, if competes
6	NEW ZEALAND	Oceania	1683	6		Assured Qualification	Unlikely	2-4
7	SPAIN	Europe	1613		1	Qualified	Possible	2-7, if competes
8	IRELAND	Europe	1480		2	Qualified	Possible	3-9, if competes
9	BELGIUM	Europe	1445	5		Assured Qualification	Possible	5-10, if competes
10	INDIA	Asia	1443		1	Qualified	No	5-8
11	CHINA	Asia	1421	7		Assured Qualification	No	6-9
12	SOUTH KOREA	Asia	1380		1	Qualified	No	7-10
13	UNITED STATES	America	1223	9		Assured Qualification	Unlikely	5-11
14	JAPAN	Asia	1185		2	-	CHAMPIONS	-
15	CHILE	America	1085		3	Likely	Unlikely	11-14, if competes
16	SOUTH AFRICA	Africa	983		4	Likely	Likely	11-13, if competes
17	ITALY	Europe	929		3	Likely	No	11-14, if competes
18	CANADA	America	823		2	Qualified	Highly Unlikely	11-14
19	SCOTLAND	Europe	713		5	Does not compete separately in Olympics
20	MALAYSIA	Asia	708		3	Unlikely	No	14, if competes
21	CZECH REPUBLIC	Europe	703		4	OUT	No
22	BELARUS	Europe	625		5	Possible	Highly Unlikely	13-14, if competes
23	RUSSIA	Europe	596		4	Possible	Highly Unlikely	13-14, if competes
24	POLAND	Europe	580		5	OUT	No
25	URUGUAY	America	483		6	Highly Unlikely	Highly Unlikely
26	WALES	Europe	475		6	Does not compete separately in Olympics
27	UKRAINE	Europe	418		7	OUT	No
28	THAILAND	Asia	335		7	OUT	No

Once again, the results of Asian Games 2018 have not been included in the above rankings. However, in this case, the Silver won by the Indian women combined with Golds at the 2017 Asia Cup and 2016 Asian Champions Trophy are sufficient to keep them the top-ranked team in Asia, meaning India will NOT drop any ranking points in the next iteration of the rankings, which will decide the seeding and qualifiers for the Olympic Qualifier.

Women’s Scenarios

The Indian women are currently ranked 10. The only team ranked below India that can overtake them in USA. This is because USA was upset by Chile in the 2017 Pan American Cup and hence lost a lot of points. If, as expected, USA reach the final of the 2019 Pan American Games then they will gain points and rise through the rankings to around World Rank 8, pushing India down to no. 11. Further, the only teams currently above India that can fall below are Ireland and Belgium. Thus, India will end up with a World Ranking between 8 and 11. However, a World Ranking of 11 is highly precarious for India. This is because of the ten teams ahead of India, three would be expected to qualify directly for Tokyo as continental champions of Europe, Oceania and Pan-America. That would leave India as eighth among the teams participating in the Olympic qualifier, thus just missing out on being in the top 7 seeds that will play the qualifier at home!! In this worst-case but likely scenario, India would be forced to play away with the opponent likely to be drawn from Spain, Ireland, Belgium and USA. Indian women's team after winning the FIH Series Finals Thus, in order to get into the top seven seeds, India will need either USA failing to reach the final of the Pan American Games, or at least one of Belgium and Ireland to have a poor European Championships. Ireland falling behind India is quite unlikely, as it will require Ireland to finish in the bottom 2 of the 8-team European Championship AND require that at least one of Russia or Belarus finish at least two places higher than Ireland. Belgium, however, is likely to fall below India if they finish outside the top three, though there are some scenarios in which a fourth or even a fifth place might be sufficient for Belgium to just stay above India. Thus, Indian fans should be cheering against Belgium in the upcoming European Championships. If India does manage to break into the top seven seeds, then they will play at home with the opponent likely to be drawn from China, South Korea, Italy (or possibly Chile or South Africa) and whoever of Belgium, Ireland and USA fall below India. Once again, the wild card is South Africa, who would be expected to win the African Championships but may give up that direct Olympic spot and choose to compete in the Olympic Qualifier. This scenario will open up a back-door for India, as South Africa’s spot in the Olympics will be reallocated to the highest ranked loser in the Olympic Qualifier, and that can easily turn out to be India!