Asian Games 2026: Can India breach the 100-medal mark again in Aichi-Nagoya?

The 2026 Asian Games are just days away, with several Indian athletes already in Japan for pre-competition acclimatisation.

India will send a 496-athlete contingent to Aichi-Nagoya, with the opening ceremony scheduled for September 19. However, some Indian athletes will begin their campaigns earlier, with teqball starting on September 17, followed by soft tennis and women’s cricket on September 18.

Olympic medallists Mirabai Chanu, PV Sindhu, Aman Sehrawat and Manu Bhaker are among the leading names in the contingent, alongside Murali Sreeshankar, Sujeet Kalkal and several members of India’s hockey, shooting, kabaddi and cricket teams.

Two-time Olympic medallist Neeraj Chopra will miss the Games because of an ankle ligament injury and will not defend the men’s javelin gold he won at Hangzhou 2022.

India won 106 medals at Hangzhou, including 28 golds, its best-ever haul at the Asian Games. Repeating that performance will be difficult, with several defending champions absent and some medal contenders entering the Games without the form they showed in 2022.

Based on India’s recent international form, previous Asian Games performances and the strength of the 2026 field, here is our projected medal tally for India in Aichi-Nagoya.

Projected medal tally: 90-95

Here, The Bridge predicts India’s medal tally at the Aichi-Nagoya Games, with a detailed breakdown:

Team sports: 6 medals

India will compete in five team sports at Aichi-Nagoya: cricket, kabaddi, hockey, rugby and volleyball.

India will enter both cricket competitions and the kabaddi events with strong gold medal expectations. The men’s hockey team will also be among the leading contenders for the title, while the women’s hockey team will be fighting for gold against Olympic medalist China.

The women’s rugby and men’s volleyball teams face a tougher path to the podium based on the strength of the Asian field.

Athletics: 23-26 Medals

Athletics produced 29 medals at Hangzhou, India’s biggest haul from the sport at the 2022 Asian Games. Matching that number will be difficult this time.

India will be without Hangzhou javelin champions Neeraj Chopra and Annu Rani. The relay teams have also undergone changes, leaving India with fewer established medal options than in 2022.

India’s strongest gold medal hopes now rest in the long jump, where both Murali Sreeshankar and Ancy Sojan enter as the Asian leaders this season.

Asian champion Pooja Singh in the women’s high jump and in-form men’s high jumper Sarvesh Kushare will also be pushing for gold in Japan.

Tajinderpal Singh Toor will attempt to win his third consecutive Asian Games gold in the men’s shot put. Avinash Sable, meanwhile, returns after a lengthy injury layoff and will be looking to regain his best form in the 3000m steeplechase.

India's middle and long distance runners will also be important to the overall tally, with the discipline having contributed several medals at Hangzhou.

Shooting: 20-25 Medals

Shooting will again be central to India's gold medal prospects. At Hangzhou, Indian shooters won seven gold medals, five of which came in team events, which could be the key source of gold medals in Japan also.

However, India will not have the two individual champions from Hangzhou, Palak Gulia and Sift Kaur Samra, who are not part of the 2026 squad.

In their absence, Manu Bhaker, Suruchi and Esha Singh will carry India's medal hopes in the pistol events. Elavenil Valarivan, Rudrankksh Patil and Aishwary Tomar will lead the rifle contingent.

The depth of the Chinese and Korean teams means India will face strong competition across the shooting programme, but the number of events and the strength of the Indian squad make shooting one of the biggest potential contributors to the overall tally.

Archery: 6-7 Medals

India’s compound archers swept all five gold medals at Hangzhou, producing one of the country's most dominant performances at the Games.

Repeating that clean sweep will be difficult. The compound team has shown some inconsistency on the international circuit, while China, South Korea and Iran provide strong competition.

Despite this, they remain favourites to secure 4-5 medals in Japan, with experienced campaigner and defending champion Jyothi Surekha Vennam in the team.

In the recurve section, recently crowned World Cup Finals champion Dhiraj Bommadevara’s current form offers further promise, and the team will be hoping for a strong showing from him.

Wrestling: 5-7 Medals

Aman Sehrawat and Sujeet Kalkal will headline India's men's wrestling campaign.

Aman will be among the gold medal contenders in the 57kg category, while Sujeet, ranked second in the world, could face Japan’s Olympic champion Kotaro Kiyooka in the 65kg category.

In the women’s events, Antim Panghal, Manisha Bhanwala and Nisha Dahiya will also be in contention, although the Japanese, Chinese and North Korean fields will provide significant competition.

India has traditionally been one of the major medal-winning nations in wrestling at the Asian Games, but the 2026 squad will need to navigate a strong field to match previous hauls.

Squash: 5-6 Medals

India will be among the leading medal contenders in squash alongside Malaysia, Hong Kong and Japan, with five events on the programme.

Abhay Singh and Veer Chotrani, both seeded in the top four, will hope for a double podium for India in men's singles. Abhay will also feature alongside Anahat Singh in mixed doubles.

India's men’s team will attempt to defend the gold medal won at Hangzhou, while the women's team and mixed doubles offer further medal opportunities.

Other Sports: 20-25 Medals

Boxing (4-5 medals): India has several medal contenders in the women's field, including Sakshi Chaudhary and Preeti Pawar.

Badminton (2-3 medals): India will be a medal contender in team events and will also look to the doubles pairings, including defending men’s doubles champions Satwiksairaj Rankireddy and Chirag Shetty, for medals.

Water Sports (4-5 medals): Rowing, canoeing and sailing have produced medals for India at recent Asian Games and will again provide medal opportunities. Swimming could also produce a medal if India’s leading competitors deliver their best performances.

Weightlifting (1 medal): Mirabai Chanu will be India's leading medal hope in the women’s 49kg category as she looks for her first Asian Games medal.

Tennis (1-2 medals): With Rohan Bopanna retired, India's doubles campaign will feature new combinations. Yuki Bhambri and DK Suresh will be among the pairings to watch.

Other Combat Sports (2-3 medals): Judo, karate, taekwondo, wushu and MMA will provide further medal opportunities, with India having produced podium finishes in several of these disciplines at recent continental competitions.

Golf, equestrian, table tennis, sepak takraw and esports could also add to India's tally if their medal contenders convert their opportunities.

India's final tally will depend heavily on the performances of its biggest medal-producing sports. Shooting and athletics have the potential to account for a substantial portion of the medals, while wrestling, archery, squash and the team sports could provide important additions.

A return of 90-95 medals would put India within sight of its Hangzhou performance, but reaching the 106-medal mark again would require several of its medal contenders to outperform expectations.