ISL Playoff race: Who’s in, who’s out, who needs a miracle?

Mohun Bagan Super Giants, the leaders, the trendsetters, the champions-elect.

The Mariners are just three points away from being the first side ever to retain the ISL Shield.

They are not in a playoff race, they are racing to the summit of the league with little to no hindrance.

Their closest contender, FC Goa is still 10 points behind with 4 games to go.

While mathematically the title can not be confirmed yet, the Mariners just need one more win to close out the deal once and for all; winning the title in record time, points, and all those laurels.

While other teams fight for playoff spots, here's a quick look at the standings and what each team needs to do in the final stretch:

FC Goa

Already confirmed for the playoffs, Goa now aims for a top-three or top-two finish.

Winning two of their last four games (vs. Kerala Blasters, Punjab, Mohammedan, and Mohun Bagan SG) guarantees a top-three spot.

Three wins will ensure a top-two finish, but a title challenge is only possible if MBSG drops points.

Jamshedpur FC

Khalid Jamil’s men need at least two wins from their last four matches (Mohammedan, Kerala Blasters, Odisha, and Chennaiyin) to confirm playoffs.

Three wins will guarantee a top-four finish while winning all four could see them finish third.

NorthEast United

Running their best season in the past 4 years, Benali's men are aiming to make the playoffs for the first time since Khalid Jamil did it in 2020-21.

But similar to Jamshedpur, NorthEast still has no guarantee of the playoffs. They still have three games against Bengaluru (H), Chennaiyin (A), and East Bengal (H) to do so.

• Needs 2 wins to qualify for playoffs.
• A clean sweep (3/3 wins) could place them between 4th and 6th, depending on other results.
• The upcoming clash vs. Bengaluru is crucial, as the winner gains a head-to-head advantage.

Mumbai City and Bengaluru FC

Both teams are level on 31 points, needing three wins from their last four to secure playoffs. Their final-day showdown at Kanteerava could determine who finishes higher, assuming they pick up enough points beforehand.

• Both teams have 31 points and are fighting for playoffs.
• Mumbai’s fixtures: Hyderabad (A), Mohun Bagan SG (H), Kerala Blasters (A), Bengaluru (A).
• Bengaluru’s fixtures: Northeast United (A), Chennaiyin (H), East Bengal (A), Mumbai (H).
• Need at least 3 wins to secure playoffs.

Odisha FC

Kalinga was expecting Lobera's magic to fervor through yet again, but it felt like the crackers went damp. Currently standing at 7th place, the current season is set to be Lobera's lowest-ever ISL finish if all continues at the same rate. 

• Remaining matches: Mohun Bagan SG (A), Mohammedan (H), Jamshedpur (A).
• Needs to win all 3 games (9 points) to reach 38 points.
• Also depends on Jamshedpur, Bengaluru, Mumbai, or Northeast dropping points.
• Holds head-to-head advantage over Bengaluru & Jamshedpur (return fixture pending).

Kerala Blasters & Punjab FC

When Mikael Stahre left the Blasters, they were reeling in 10th place with 11 points in 12 games.

While life has not fared that much better for the Blasters post-sacking, it has seen an improvement in the table as the Yellow Army has scraped out 13 points in the 8 games played since. 

Currently 9th, level on points, head-to-head, and goal differential with Kerala; Punjab FC finds themselves in the same helplessness as the Blasters.

• Both teams are on 24 points, needing all 12 points from their last 4 matches to stay in the race.
• Kerala’s fixtures: Goa (A), Jamshedpur (H), Mumbai City (H), Hyderabad (A).
• Punjab’s fixtures: East Bengal (H), Hyderabad (H), Goa (A), Mohammedan (A).
• Also need 3 of Jamshedpur, Bengaluru, Mumbai, Northeast, Odisha, or each other to drop points.

Chennaiyin FC and East Bengal FC

This season could witness Owen Coyle's worst-ever ISL League finish unless miracles of the highest order occur in tandem to let Chennaiyin qualify. Much like Kerala and Punjab, they too only hold an outsider's chance at qualification. Slumped at 10th with 24 points from 21 games, Chennaiyin can attain a maximum of 33 points from this point onwards.

In the same case as Chennaiyin, East Bengal had high hopes, but the season only had consistent drops.

• Both are on 24 points and in a similar situation to Kerala & Punjab.
• Chennaiyin’s fixtures: Bengaluru (A), Northeast (H), Jamshedpur (H).
• East Bengal’s fixtures: Punjab (A), Hyderabad (H), Bengaluru (H), Northeast (A).
• Even if they win all 4 games, they need at least 4 other teams to lose substantial points.

Although it is still mathematically possible, the probability of so many results falling in favor is rather unlikely; but hey, the game's football, you never know!

For Hyderabad and Mohammedans, with no relegation, the only battle left is to avoid finishing last. 

These calculations are predominantly based on how teams can qualify on their own and were last updated on February 17.